Trump Creating a New Global Power (#123)

In this edition: nine stories with 13 links I’ve recently found interesting about where things stand in our long, twilight struggle to defeat authoritarianism. Celebrating Hungary’s victory for democracy; Trump is helping Iran become a global power; using inside information to make profits on war or national security info is treason; journalists should not party with Trump; Iran’s connection to Christian Armageddon prophecies; austerity programs make fascism possible; a writer describes what he learned about oligarchs at a Jeff Bezos retreat; do not fall for Tucker Carlson’s apology for supporting Trump; and 12 photos from Artemis II demonstrate why we should make competence in government normal again.

Here we go. We will win. I’m glad you’re here.

#1

• Illiberalism Is Not Inevitable (Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic, Gift Link to Article Made Possible by Paid Subscribers)

In the end, the defeat of Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s autocratic prime minister, required not just an ordinary election campaign or new messaging but rather the construction of a broad, diverse, and patriotic grassroots social movement. And by building exactly that, Hungary’s opposition changed politics around the world.

Orbán’s loss brings to an end the assumption of inevitability that has pervaded the MAGA movement, as well as the belief—also present in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric—that illiberal parties are somehow destined not just to win but to hold power forever, because they have the support of the “real” people. As it turns out, history doesn’t work like that. “Real” people grow tired of their rulers. Old ideas become stale. Younger people question orthodoxy. Illiberalism leads to corruption. And if Orbán can lose, then his Russian and American admirers can lose too.

WHY THIS STORY GIVES ME HOPE

So much news seems to happen every day as the Trump regime follows the Steve Bannon strategy “to flood the zone with shit.” It can be exhausting. We don’t have the time to digest all the news that happens.

So let’s make sure we give proper notice to how Hungary’s voters defeated an authoritarian in a competitive autocracy.

A broad coalition and massive voter turnout can make an election too one-sided to steal. That is what the Hungarian opposition just pulled off. And, as Applebaum writes, that means we can also emerge from our long, twilight struggle against authoritarianism as winners.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin tried to put their thumbs on the electoral scales. But Hungarians said no. They wanted freedom. They wanted Europe.

They also rejected Vice President JD Vance. That’s a growing club!

For 16 years, Orbán did what he could to create a system where he could not lose. He attacked higher education. He had his oligarch allies take over media outlets. He gerrymandered electoral districts. He ensured his allies controlled the election processes. He attacked migrants and sought to create a Christian nationalist state.

But he still lost. The people won.

I was inspired by watching the Hungarian people celebrate. They have a difficult road ahead. Nonetheless, they took a giant step back towards freedom. That’s worth celebrating!

And I believe we will follow their lead. Let’s win elections by margins that are impossible to steal.

#2

• The New Balance of Power After the Ceasefire (Professor Robert Pape, Link to Article)
• 2.3 Million Views in 24 Hours—Why This Conversation Is Landing Now (Professor Robert Pape, Link to Article)

The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is being described as a pause in hostilities. That description is misleading. What has occurred is not simply a halt in bombing. It is the clearest indication yet of a shift in power.

By the core standard of international politics—who can shape the behavior of others—the outcome is unmistakable. Iran has demonstrated the ability to impose costs on the global system and force adjustment across multiple actors. The United States, despite overwhelming military superiority, has accepted a halt under conditions it cannot fully dictate.

This is not equilibrium.

It is a reversal.

Over the past forty days, Washington escalated step by step—expanding targets, increasing tempo, raising threats. At each stage, the expectation was that additional force would produce compliance. It did not. Instead, each escalation generated counterpressure—on energy markets, on allies, and ultimately on U.S. decision-making itself.

This is the pattern of strategic failure.

Not a single misstep, but a sequence in which more force produces less control.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

Robert Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and an expert in international security affairs and the use of political violence.

Pape has studied how air power alone fails to win wars and has war-gamed such scenarios in Iran. I suspect it is not a coincidence that Pape has been two to three weeks ahead of events and media coverage since the Iran War began.

He has explained how air power alone would not defeat Iran because much of the latter’s military infrastructure is underground and the country has a strategic advantage with its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. I have found his analysis clarifying—and frightening.

Stage 1 of the sequence was the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns. While President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu may have believed that would be enough to defeat Iran, that obviously did not turn out to be the case.

Stage 2 was Iran’s decision to use its missiles, drones, mines, and proxies to expand the conflict across the region while claiming power over the Strait of Hormuz.

We are now at a pivot point. Will the United States choose to use ground troops to take control over the Strait of Hormuz (stage 3)? Or will Iran have the opportunity to become a fourth global power (with the U.S., Russia, and China) because of its ability to influence 20 percent of the world’s energy supply—along with other commodities (like helium and fertilizer) that the world requires (stage 4)?

If the Trump regime seeks a negotiated settlement, Iran will end up battered physically but strengthened diplomatically. Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz was theoretical, something that happened in war games.

Now it is a fact. The world is reacting to the new state of play. The Trump regime appears focused on manipulating the financial markets.

Pape explained all of this and where he thinks we may be headed in an interview taped late last week on The Diary of a CEO. I think it is an excellent way to catch up on the strategic situation and prepare for what the history of air wars and escalation responses suggests is coming next.

Are we going to see U.S. ground forces positioning for an invasion? How many ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz each day, and are they doing it only with Iranian permission? What happens now that President Trump has opened the nuclear option with his dangerous and genocidal threat to end Iranian civilization?

As Pape wrote to share the interview:

The response to my second appearance on Diary of a CEO—now over 2.3 million views in 24 hours—is not random.

It is happening because people can feel that something in this war is not being explained correctly.

The gap between what is happening and how it is being described is now too large to ignore.

And when that gap opens, attention moves fast.

#3

• Treason in the Futures Markets (Paul Krugman, Link to Article)
• The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump's presidency (Nick Marsh, BBC, Link to Archive Article)

The BBC’s Nick Marsh reports:

Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.

The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.

It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.

Paul Krugman writes:

When officers of a company or people close to them exploit confidential information for personal financial gain, that’s insider trading — which is illegal. But we have another word for situations in which people with access to confidential information regarding national security — such as plans to bomb or not to bomb another country — exploit that information for profit. That word is “treason.”

Why is profiting from insider information about national security decisions effectively a form of treason? First, it’s hard to think of a more fundamental principle for officials we entrust with important decisions, especially those that involve national security, that they or people they know should not be allowed to exploit their positions for personal gain.

Second, financial trading based on what should be closely held secrets reveals information to current or potential foreign adversaries. To exaggerate a bit, but only a bit, who needs to bribe agents within the government, or recruit them with honey traps, when you can infer the same information by keeping track of transactions on futures markets?

Finally, there isn’t that big a gap between using knowledge of national secrets to make lucrative financial trades and simply selling those secrets to the highest bidder. Once you’re breached the line that says you shouldn’t profit personally from access to information that is or should be highly classified, the line between trading based on state secrets and selling those secrets directly is a blurry one.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

Paul Krugman is right. If Trump regime officials are using their knowledge of presidential life and death decisions to make money like this, it is treason.

People around the world are watching these markets. These bets are giving our adversaries information they can use to harm our troops. We still don’t appear to be clean on OPSEC, Secretary Hegseth.

The Trump regime, like many authoritarian regimes, is focused on making as much money as it can by virtue of the power it has and the information to which it has access.

We must not accept this outcome.

When Democrats take power in Congress, investigating these suspicious trades should be a priority.

I don’t see a difference between using national security information to trade on the prediction markets and getting paid to transmit intelligence information to other countries.

Democrats need to highlight these corrupt practices. New legislation may be necessary. That’s good! It gives reporters something to cover.

Fighting corruption is popular—and is one of the factors that led to Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary. Democrats should do all they can to fight it.

#4

• First Draft – 🥂 Journalists: Stop Partying With Donald Trump! (Asawin Suebsaeng, Zeteo, Link to Article)
• Washington’s top journalists shouldn't further abase themselves for Trump (Dan Froomkin, Press Watch, Link to Article)

Asawin Suebsaeng writes:

If someone you knew kept threatening you and your friends with torture and rape in jail – and if that someone kept doing it with a grin – would you invite them to a dinner party?

You wouldn’t. Some lines need to be drawn in the sand.

And yet we are now years into Donald Trump making precisely that threat, over and over, at political journalists who piss him off, and now he has the power of the federal government to help him try to do it. “We’re going to go to the media company… and we’re going to say, ‘National security. Give it up or go to jail,’” the president said this month.

Trump has adopted the idea of imprisoning journalists so they get raped as an applause line – musing that once a reporter “learns he’s going to be married to a certain prisoner who’s extremely strong, tough, and mean, he will say, ‘You know, I think I’m going to give you the information.’”

And yet, for some reason, a large number of journalists have dry-cleaned their cocktail attire, so that they may attend a glitzy dinner party starring Mr. Trump in Washington, DC, this weekend.

Dan Froomkin writes:

Donald Trump and the nation’s top political journalists are in an abusive relationship.

He lies to them constantly, insults them, sues them, calls them traitors, tries to turn the public against them, gaslights them, bans them, and threatens their outlets with dissolution.

And they almost never fight back.

Indeed, they actually cover up for him.

Relentlessly driven by their corporate masters to “not take sides,” they sanewash and normalize him, no matter what he says or does. Even their most critical reporting pulls punches – and is quickly forgotten.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

What is the White House Correspondents Association thinking? How can they have President Trump and so many members of his regime at a dinner that is supposed to honor the First Amendment?

There is no indication that anyone is going to follow Episcopal Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde’s example by confronting Trump directly. That should be the minimum expectation for this event. As Bishop Budde demonstrated, it can be done politely.

Instead, it appears the Washington media is rushing into a trap. Does anyone think that Trump won’t viciously attack reporters who have tried to hold his regime accountable?

Perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised and someone will address Trump about the importance of the First Amendment with something stronger than pocket squares designed by Jake Tapper. (Seriously, that’s the plan?)

But Trump has been the primary newsmaker in U.S. politics for a decade. How many unifying footballs must Trump yank away from the legacy media before they understand that Trump is not interested in reaching an accommodation with them?

#5

• War With Iran? A Blood Moon on Purim? For Some Christian Influencers, That Can Mean Only One Thing: The End Times (Sarah Posner, Talking Points Memo, Link to Article)

On Sunday, two days after President Donald Trump ordered the start of “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, John Hagee, the 85-year-old televangelist and founder of Christians United for Israel (CUFI), delivered a sermon at his Cornerstone Church in San Antonio, Texas. Standing in front of a banner that read “God’s Coming… Operation Epic Fury,” Hagee thanked Trump, “whose wisdom and courage has crushed the enemies of Zion.” He then quickly pivoted to a familiar refrain for anyone who — like me — has followed Hagee’s career since he founded CUFI in 2006: that the American and Israeli attack on Iran will trigger a series of biblically prophesied events, including the invasion of Israel by a Russian-led army, and Jesus’s eventual defeat of the Antichrist at the Battle of Armageddon.

For decades, Hagee has argued that he loves and supports the Jewish people and the state of Israel; that it is a biblical imperative that America support Israel, including going to war on its behalf; and that Israel will be the site of the ultimate showdown between good and evil, at which Jews will burn or convert, and after which Jesus will rule the world for one thousand years from a throne on the Temple Mount.

Hagee also has spent decades arguing that Iran is central to this sequence of events, leaning heavily on the story of the Jewish holiday of Purim, celebrated this week. The holiday commemorates the biblical story of the heroism of Queen Esther, the secretly Jewish wife of the Persian king, who saves the Jews from an extermination plot by the villainous court official Haman. For Hagee, the Purim story is not a lesson about the evils of religious hatred and genocidal ambitions; it is a biblical guide for attacking modern-day Iran (Persia) to save Israel from the wicked designs of its leaders. For Hagee, who has long been close to Republican officials and lawmakers, real-life occurrences are relevant primarily as harbingers of biblically prophesied events or signs from God about his divine intentions.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

Why did Donald Trump agree to attack Iran after three previous presidents told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “no?”

Trump has advocated for using the military in Iran since 1980. It is also clear that he was really feeling himself after the successful abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. And it is not like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is there to caution him.

But I think Trump’s need to keep evangelical leaders on his side also matters. He keeps hearing leaders talk about Israel in terms of these end-time prophecies. Hegseth also keeps emphasizing a biblical power behind this conflict. Trump wouldn’t be the first national leader to launch an attack because he believes he has a god on his side.

This is, of course, one of the reasons the Constitution’s drafters put the power to make war in the hands of the legislature. English citizens had experience with religious wars started on a sovereign’s whim. They did what they could to prevent that here.

They didn’t plan on the Article I branch rejecting its role in our checks and balances system.

#6

• Austerity creates fascism (Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic, Link to Article)

I'm worried about AI psychosis. Specifically, I'm worried about the psychosis that makes our "capital allocators" spend $1.4T on the money-losingest technology in the history of the human race, in pursuit of a bizarre fantasy that if we teach the word-guessing program enough words, it will take all the jobs. That's some next-level underpants-gnomery: https://pluralistic.net/2026/03/12/normal-technology/#bubble-exceptionalism

The thing that worries me about billionaires' AI psychosis isn't concern for their financial solvency. No, what I worry about is what happens when the seven companies that comprise a third of the S&P 500 stop trading the same $100b IOU around while pretending it's in all of their bank accounts at once and implode, vaporizing a third of the US stock market.

My concern about a massive collapse in the capital markets isn't that workers will suffer directly. Despite all the Wonderful Life rhetoric about your money being in Joe's house and the Kennedy house and Mrs Macklin's house, the reality is that the median US worker has $955 saved for retirement. You could nuke the whole financial system and not take a dime out of most workers' pockets: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/955-saved-for-retirement-millions-are-in-that-boat-150003868.html

No, the thing that has me terrified about AI is that when it craters and takes the economy with it, that we will respond the same way we have during every financial crisis of the 21st century: with austerity, and austerity breeds fascism.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

As Doctorow explains, we have direct experience with this here in the United States. I believe a lot of our present crisis began when then Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner convinced former President Obama to support a financial recovery plan that bailed out the banks instead of people.

(It didn’t help that the economic stimulus was too small to help the economy recover quickly because Democrats like Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel were afraid of the word trillion.)

People rightly wonder how we have experienced an era during which voters would cast their ballots for Obama, then Trump, then Biden, then Trump over the last four elections.

People keep saying they are upset with their economic circumstances. They want something different. And so they will keep voting for different until morale improves.

Doctorow explains how this dynamic shouldn’t be a surprise. As he explains:

Political scientists have assembled a large, reproducible body of evidence to show that "public service provision is crucial to people’s perceptions of their quality of life and living standards." Good public services are the basis for "the social contract between rulers and the ruled" – pay your taxes and obey the laws, and in return, you will be well served.

When public services go wrong, people don't always know who to blame, but they definitely notice that something is going wrong, so when public services fail, people stop trusting the state, and that social contract starts to fray. They start to suspect that elites are lining their pockets rather than managing the system, and they "withdraw their support" for the system.

Authoritarians and fascists love these dynamics.

If the AI bubble bursts or the economy suffers because of the shortages that are going to happen because of Trump’s Iranian war folly, bailing out the techbroligarchs must not be the answer.

We’ve tried protecting the wealthy and austerity for the people. Let’s not make that mistake again if we want to have a democracy.

#7

• What I Learned About Billionaires at Jeff Bezos’s Private Retreat (Noah Hawley, The Atlantic, Link to Article)

The closer I’ve gotten to the world of wealth, the more I understand that being truly rich doesn’t mean amassing enough money to afford superyachts, private jets, or a million acres of land. It means that everything becomes effectively free. Any asset can be acquired but nothing can ever be lost, because for soon-to-be trillionaires, no level of loss could significantly change their global standing or personal power. For them, the word failure has ceased to mean anything.

This sense of invulnerability has deep psychological ramifications. If everything is free and nothing matters, then the world and other people exist only to be acted upon, if they are acknowledged at all. This is different from classic narcissism, in which a grandiose but fragile self-image can mask deep insecurity. What I’m talking about is a self-definition in which the individual grows to the size of the universe, and the universe vanishes. Asked recently if there is any check on his power, President Trump—himself a billionaire, and by far the richest president in American history—said, “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.” Not domestic or international law, not the will of the voters, not God or the centuries-old morality of civic and religious life.

Decades of research in developmental psychology have shown that moral reasoning develops through consequences—not punishment, necessarily, but experiencing the effects of your actions on others, receiving honest feedback, having to accommodate reality as it actually is rather than as you wish it to be. It’s not that the wealthy become evil; it’s that their environment stops teaching them the things that nonwealthy people are forced to learn simply by living in a world that pushes back. When you can buy your way out of any mistake, when you can fire anyone who disagrees with you, when your social circle consists entirely of people who need something from you, the basic mechanism by which humans learn that other people are real goes dark.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

Here’s another reason why no individuals should have this kind of power over our politics and economy.

I don’t think anyone will be surprised by what Hawley shares from the Bezos’ retreat. People who are never told “no” start acting differently.

And that’s one of the reasons reducing the power of our oligarchs must be a priority. Getting fortunate in business (and/or family ties) does not necessarily make one an expert on, well, anything.

We can tax billionaires more. We can change state laws to keep corporations from donating to candidates, PACs, or ballot measures. We can create public campaign financing systems.

#8

• Tucker Carlson’s apology for supporting Trump is just hot air (Lyz Lenz, MS NOW, Link to Article)

After decades of spreading false narratives about immigrants, depicting Black people as violent criminals and feminists as the root of all evil and helping to lay the ideological bedrock for this current administration, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson wants you to forgive him.

On his podcast, Carlson and his brother, Buckley, a former speechwriter for Trump in 2015, criticized the war in Iran. Buckley called Trump “out of control, megalomaniacal, destructive president.” And a subdued Tucker said he will be “tormented” by his support for Trump for a “long time,” apologizing to listeners for “misleading” them about the president.

But Carlson’s apology feels false after decades of profiting off racist, sexist and violent rhetoric. If he was truly sorry, he should say specifically what he’s sorry for. There’s plenty of material to work from. As the tide of public opinion shifts against Trump and his ill-conceived war, Carlson’s attempt at contrition isn’t really remorse. It’s just more of what Carlson has always done so well, carpetbagging the American flop era.

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

Oh, please. We don’t need to fall for this gambit again. I understand why Tucker is trying to position himself for a post-Trump future.

But being against the Iran War does not erase everything else Tucker has done, including using his former Fox News prime-time show to spread the great replacement theory and lies about President Biden’s 2020 election victory.

If Tucker were serious about his apology, he would be announcing the end of his programs and going into a self-imposed exile.

By trying to create MAGA without the Iran War mistake, Tucker is positioning himself to be the leader of this racist movement—and perhaps a presidential candidate in 2028.

Democrats do not need to help him with those efforts. Like a broken clock, he is right this time. But his ledger is still extremely negative overall.

#9

• See NASA’s Artemis II mission around the moon in 12 stunning photos (Joseph Howlett, Scientific American, Link to Article)

WHY I FIND THIS STORY INTERESTING

Our species can do wonderful things. We should revel in how competence can inspire. And then work to make that our normal again.

Useful Websites and Information Trackers

Election Data

• 2026 Election Calendar (The Downballot, Link to Article)
• Ultimate Data Guide (The Downballot, Link to Article)

Iran War Consequences

• Strait of Hormuz Shipping Trackers (hormuztracker.com | hormuzstraitmonitor.com)

Trump Regime Authoritarianism

• Trump Action Tracker (Making Sense of US Politics, Link to Article)
• Executive Watch [Trump Abuses of Power] (Institute for the Study of Modern Authoritarianism, The Unpopulist, Link to Article)
• ICE Warehouse Tracker (Project Salt Box, Link to Article)

Trump Regime Corruption

• Kleptocracy Tracker Timeline (Anne Applebaum, SNF Agora Institute, Link to Article)

Follow me on BlueSky to see the stories I’m finding and the tabs I’m opening throughout the day.

Craig Cheslog (@craigcheslog.com)

GenXer against fascism. Talking politics, women’s soccer, WNBA, Manchester United men and women, USWNT, USMNT, Green Bay Packers, Boston Celtics, Chicago Cubs, and Taylor Swift. (he/him/his) My newsletter: https://thelongtwilightstruggle.com/.

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